🔗 Share this article

When dawn crept over the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, negotiators remained trapped in a enclosed conference room, oblivious whether it was day or night. For more than 12 hours in strained discussions, with dozens ministers representing various coalitions of countries including the most vulnerable nations to the most developed economies.

Patience wore thin, the air heavy as exhausted delegates acknowledged the grim reality: there would not be a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The 30th UN climate conference faced the brink of abject failure.

The central impasse: Fossil fuels

As science has told us for well over a century, the carbon dioxide produced by consuming fossil fuels is warming our planet to alarming levels.

However, during over three decades of yearly climate meetings, the urgent need to cease fossil fuel use has been mentioned only once – in a resolution made two years ago at previous UN climate talks to "shift from fossil fuels". Delegates from the Middle Eastern nations, Russia, and several other countries were resolved this would not occur another time.

Growing momentum for change

At the same time, a expanding group of countries were equally determined that progress on this issue was crucially important. They had formulated a plan that was earning increasing support and made it apparent they were willing to dig in.

Emerging economies urgently needed to advance on securing economic resources to help them cope with the increasingly severe impacts of extreme weather.

Turning point

During the night of Saturday, some delegates were ready to withdraw and force a collapse. "We were close for us," commented one government representative. "I was ready to walk away."

The critical development happened through discussions with Saudi Arabia. Shortly after 6am, senior representatives split from the main group to hold a confidential discussion with the head Saudi negotiator. They encouraged wording that would obliquely recognise the global commitment to "shift from fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Surprising consensus

Instead of explicitly mentioning fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the previous commitment". Following reflection, the Saudi delegation unexpectedly accepted the wording.

The room expressed relief. Celebrations began. The deal was completed.

With what became known as the "Belém political package", the world took an incremental move towards the gradual elimination of fossil fuels – a hesitant, insufficient step that will barely interrupt the climate's steady march towards catastrophe. But nevertheless a significant departure from absolute paralysis.

Important aspects of the agreement

• Complementing the oblique commitment in the formal agreement, countries will commence creating a plan to phase out fossil fuels
• This will be largely a non-binding program led by Brazil that will deliver findings next year
• Addressing the necessary cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to not exceed the 1.5C limit was similarly postponed to next year
• Developing countries secured a significant expansion to $120bn of yearly funding to help them adapt to the impacts of extreme weather
• This funding will not be delivered in full until 2035
• Workers will benefit from a "just transition mechanism" to help people working in fossil fuel sectors transition to the renewable industry

Mixed reactions

As the world hovers near the brink of climate "tipping points" that could devastate environments and throw whole regions into crisis, the agreement was insufficient as the "giant leap" needed.

"Cop30 gave us some small advances in the proper course, but considering the scale of the climate crisis, it has not met the occasion," cautioned one policy director.

This flawed deal might have been the best attainable, given the international tensions – including a Washington administration who avoided the talks and remains committed to oil and coal, the growing influence of nationalist politics, persistent fighting in various areas, unacceptable degrees of inequality, and global economic instability.

"Major polluters – the energy conglomerates – were at last in the focus at the climate summit," says one policy convener. "There is no turning back on that. The platform is accessible. Now we must turn it into a genuine solution to a protected environment."

Major disagreements revealed

Although nations were able to applaud the official adoption of the deal, Cop30 also exposed significant divisions in the only global process for tackling the climate crisis.

"Climate conferences are consensus-based, and in a era of geopolitical divides, agreement is ever harder to reach," commented one senior UN official. "We should not suggest that these talks has delivered everything that is needed. The difference between where we are and what research requires remains alarmingly large."

Should the world is to prevent the most severe impacts of climate breakdown, the global discussions alone will fall far short.