A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
